Ireland’s housing market in mid‑2026 remains defined by strong demand, constrained supply, and worsening affordability pressures—particularly for first‑time buyers in commuter counties. The SCSI’s latest sentiment‑based market monitor, drawing on insights from over 150 agents nationwide, shows a market still rising but increasingly strained by slow conveyancing, landlord exits, and price growth outpacing income gains.
1. Market Conditions: Demand Strong, Supply Still Tight
Prices continue to rise, but at a moderating pace
The CSO Residential Property Price Index rose 6.2% in the year to May 2026, signalling continued growth but slower than previous years (). Two‑thirds of agents (64%) believe the market is in a mid‑upturn phase, with prices still rising but expected to level off rather than fall.
Credit conditions supportive
Mortgage access improved in early 2026:
- 48% of agents saw no change
- 39% saw slight improvement This steady credit flow is keeping buyer activity firm despite affordability pressures.
Property seen as increasingly expensive
Only 6% of agents consider property “fair value”—down from 17% in 2024 and 12% in 2025. Over 70% believe energy‑efficient homes command a 5–20% price premium, reinforcing BER as a key value driver.
2. Transaction Activity: More Interest, Harder Closings
Enquiries and instructions rising
- Sales enquiries index: +9% → +20%
- Sales instructions: –5% → +12% This indicates more buyers looking and more vendors listing.
But closing sales is getting harder
Agents report two growing challenges:
- Sales taking longer to complete (+17% net balance)
- More agreed sales falling through (+12% → +17%)
Key reasons include:
- Delays in releasing title deeds
- Planning/building compliance issues
- Boundary disputes
- Slower administrative and approval timelines
- Buyers conducting more detailed due diligence (BER, condition, compliance)
The result is a market where interest is strong but execution is increasingly complex.
3. Landlord Exits Reshaping the Rental Market
The buy‑to‑let sales index remains high at +24%, showing continued landlord exits (). Agents cite three main reasons:
- Rental legislation too complex and restrictive
- Net rental returns too low
- Rising values allowing landlords to exit negative equity
Regulatory complexity is a major factor: the Residential Tenancies Act has been amended repeatedly (2009–2026), creating confusion, higher admin burdens, and more disputes.
As smaller landlords leave, ownership is concentrating among institutional providers. RTB data shows an 87% year‑on‑year increase in cost‑rental tenancies, signalling structural change in the sector.
4. Price Outlook: Growth Expected to Continue
Agents expect national prices to rise 5% over the next 12 months. The SCSI price expectations index remains strongly positive at +79%, though agents anticipate more moderate growth than in recent years.
The dominant driver of future price movements remains insufficient new housing supply, despite completions rising 33% year‑on‑year in H1 2026.
5. Affordability: Larger Homes Moving Out of Reach
Affordability is now one of the market’s defining challenges.
Representative first‑time buyer couple
A garda + nurse household with a combined income of €113,000 can borrow up to €452,000 (4× income). Even with Help to Buy, they face significant shortfalls for median‑priced three‑bed semis in commuter counties:
- Meath: –€11,500
- Kildare: –€25,000
- Wicklow: –€20,500
- Cork: +€11,000 (only county where all typologies remain affordable)
Terraced homes remain broadly accessible, but family‑sized semis are slipping further out of reach.
Price growth outpacing income growth
Between late 2025 and mid‑2026:
- Household income rose €1,000
- Borrowing capacity rose €4,000
- But house prices rose 3–6% in commuter counties, wiping out gains
This widening gap is most severe in Kildare, where a €2,000 shortfall became €25,000 in six months.
6. Government Supports: Helpful but Limited
Help to Buy (HTB)
HTB significantly reduces deposit requirements—often from €50,000+ to €15,000–€20,000. But it is unavailable for homes priced above €500,000, excluding many Wicklow and Kildare properties.
First Home Scheme (FHS)
FHS is not applicable in any of the modelled scenarios:
- In lower‑priced counties, the couple’s borrowing capacity already covers the purchase.
- In higher‑priced counties, homes exceed the FHS price ceilings.
This creates a geographic affordability divide: buyers in counties just above HTB/FHS thresholds face dramatically higher deposit requirements.
7. Conclusion: A Market Still Rising, But Under Strain
The SCSI report paints a picture of a market where:
- Demand remains resilient
- Supply remains insufficient
- Prices continue to rise
- Affordability is deteriorating
- Landlord exits threaten rental supply
- Conveyancing delays are increasing fall‑throughs
Agents expect further price increases over the next year, but at a slower pace. Long‑term stability will depend on improved planning efficiency, infrastructure investment, and maintaining development viability across all housing types.